Dreaming Beneath the Spires

Anita Mathias's Blog on Faith and Art

Moth, Rust and Exogenous Events

By


Ithaca






I started seriously investing in the stock market again last summer for the first time since I had children, and have enjoyed conversations with other investors, reading the business pages off and on again, and following the ripple effects of politics and the economy on the markets.


So I look at my portfolio on Saturday, and blink. What?


 What happened was what the New York Times called an exogenous event— “a sudden political or economic jolt that cannot be predicted or modelled but sends shockwaves rippling through global markets.”


The turmoil in Egypt has spooked the markets. The price of oil and other commodities have surged, and a sustained increase might choke growth in the US. The unrest may spread to more countries in the Middle East. 


 Then there is “the rising risk of food inflation, interest rate increases in China, and sovereign debt troubles in Europe.” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of Standard & Poor’s Equity Research.


“But as is usually the case, a boxer never gets knocked out by a punch he’s looking for,” he said. “This could be what triggers the decline. Geopolitical events are very, very hard to model.”
Egypt is one of a handful of spots classified as World Oil Transit Chokepoints by the Energy Department, and events there can have an outsize impact on global energy prices.
The immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe, which relies heavily on jet fuel,  heating oil nd other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline.
 “The key risk to Asia — most notably to India — is if social unrest and economic disruptions in Tunisia and Egypt spread. The direct negative impact on Asian growth would be through weaker exports, but indirect effects through higher commodity prices on the trade, inflation and growth should not be underestimated.”
Egypt is a major player in the global grain market, importing more wheat than any other country. Some analysts have speculated that Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries might increase grain purchases to placate angry consumers, which could eventually push wheat prices higher.
Given the confrontations with the authorities in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities, many analysts expect oil prices, and global markets, to remain volatile in the coming days.”
Okaaaay.
I have been blogging through Scripture and am frequently impressed by how contemporary it is, by how it speaks to my life.
Do not let your treasure– the energy and intelligence and passion of your heart–be invested in anything which can be taken away by moth, rust, thieves or exogenous events.  
I think I might slowly withdraw from the drama of the markets, and put my energy into something which offers joy in the journey. Something which is worthy of attention.
I love this poem by Constantine Cavafy about joy in the journey, about the journey being as, or more, important than the destination.
ITHACA

When you set out on your journey to Ithaca,
pray that the road is long,
full of adventure, full of knowledge.
The Lestrygonians and the Cyclops,
the angry Poseidon — do not fear them:
You will never find such as these on your path,
if your thoughts remain lofty, if a fine
emotion touches your spirit and your body.
The Lestrygonians and the Cyclops,
the fierce Poseidon you will never encounter,
if you do not carry them within your soul,
if your soul does not set them up before you.


Pray that the road is long.
That the summer mornings are many, when,
with such pleasure, with such joy
you will enter ports seen for the first time;
stop at Phoenician markets,
and purchase fine merchandise,
mother-of-pearl and coral, amber and ebony,
and sensual perfumes of all kinds,
as many sensual perfumes as you can;
visit many Egyptian cities,
to learn and learn from scholars.


Always keep Ithaca in your mind.
To arrive there is your ultimate goal.
But do not hurry the voyage at all.
It is better to let it last for many years;
and to anchor at the island when you are old,
rich with all you have gained on the way,
not expecting that Ithaca will offer you riches.


Ithaca has given you the beautiful voyage.
Without her you would have never set out on the road.
She has nothing more to give you.


And if you find her poor, Ithaca has not deceived you.
Wise as you have become, with so much experience,
you must already have understood what Ithaca means.

Constantine P. Cavafy (1911) 

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Comments

  1. Hi Anita. I did realise that it was a quote from the NY Times but left a comment about it anyway as you had posted it on your blog. I agree about India. The corruption there is sickening.

  2. Thanks Jane. The quote was from the New York Times. I will italicise to make it clear that I was quoting.
    It's interesting how Twitter, Facebook and texting spread the news of the demonstrations.
    In India, mobile phone usage in dramatically spreading even in the most rural areas. Organising such a “revolution” will be easy–and perhaps overtime.

  3. “The key risk to Asia — most notably to India — is if social unrest and economic disruptions in Tunisia and Egypt spread….'

    I don't believe there's a tension between economic progress and liberty. This is a myth put out by Governments keen to be authoritarian.